"I consider the tariff developments thus far to be what soccer fans call an 'own goal' – a goal scored for the other side when a defender accidentally puts the ball into his own team’s net."
"We can think in terms of a 'calculus of value' that I find entirely logical and almost mathematical . . . except for the fact that it’s applied by people who aren’t."
"I think of progressively applying the following Investment Readiness Conditions, or INVESTCONs, in the face of above average market valuations and optimistic investor behavior."
Populism in Economics (民粹经济学)
出现 1 次
一种以短期民众情绪为导向的经济决策模式，通常伴随着反全球化和高福利承诺。
"The low-income majority is increasingly feeling that the 'game is rigged'."
Yen Carry Trade Unwind (日元套利交易平仓)
出现 1 次
2024 年由于日本加息导致的全球去杠杆事件，展示了技术性压力如何短期压倒基本面。
"Market participants often overreact based on shifting narratives and emotions."
"Most 'new paradigms' turn out to be just a new twist on an old theme. No technological development is so significant that its companies' stocks can be bought regardless of price."
"Mean-reversion bubbles... destroy wealth. On the other hand, inflection bubbles based on revolutionary developments accelerate technological progress... and they destroy wealth."
"The foregoing is what I call 'lottery-ticket thinking,' in which the dream of an enormous payoff justifies – no, compels – participation in an endeavor with an overwhelming probability of failing."
"OpenAI is set to receive billions from tech companies but also sends billions back to the same companies to pay for computing power and other services... All this resulted in profits that were illusory."
"Extraordinary performance comes only from correct non-consensus forecasts, but non-consensus forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly and hard to act on."
Performance Persistence (业绩持续性)
出现 1 次
指投资经理能够通过一系列可重复的、逻辑自洽的决策，持续产生超越其风险溢价回报的能力。
"It's not just what you made, but how you made it."
"In bubbles, investors treat the leading companies... as though the firms are sure to remain leaders for decades. Some do and some don't, but change seems to be more the rule than persistence."
"Too many investors drive looking in the rear-view mirror. We'd rather buy what has performed badly or is the subject of negative bias and thus is cheap."
"When allowed to function, the laws of economics provide incentives that encourage innovation, productivity and efficiency, creating prosperity and optimizing overall welfare."
"As with the national debt, the problems associated with Social Security will be left for our descendants to deal with. This is a matter of serious generational equity that deserves attention but doesn’t receive it."
Behavioral Finance (行为金融学)
出现 1 次
研究人类心理偏见如何导致市场资产定价失灵的学科，它是所有逆向投资逻辑的理论支点。
"Investment success is about doing things that others will not do."
Reflexivity in Markets (市场的反身性)
出现 1 次
投资者的看法会影响市场基本面，而基本面的变化又反过来加强这些看法，形成循环。
"Physics would be much harder if electrons had feelings."
"As long as there are disclosure rules – and that's forever – there'll be 'technically correct' statements that leave investors in the dark. In order to get numbers with integrity, you need people with integrity."
"Investors hold to their convictions as long as they can, but when the economic and psychological pressures become irresistible, they surrender and jump on the bandwagon."
Structural Deterioration (结构性恶化)
出现 1 次
指在市场过热时，投资合同和法律条款对投资者的保护力显著下降的现象。
"The race is on, and one way to win is by accepting weaker terms."
"Unconventional behavior is the only road to superior investment results... successful investing requires the ability to look wrong for a while and survive some mistakes."
"If it’s true that an asset’s volatility can bring risk for some investors but not others, then clearly the risk doesn’t lie in the investment, but in something in the investor’s environment."
"Ironically, the appropriate standard for performance measurement in the short or perhaps the intermediate term has to be a relative one, not absolute."
风险承载力矩阵 (Risk Bearing Matrix: Ability vs. Willingness)
"If we insist on a degree of defensiveness that turns out to be excessive, the worst consequence should be that your profits will be a little lower than they otherwise might have been. I don't think that's the worst thing in the world."